This monograph moves toward a stage theory of the uses of the future, deepening the Six Pillars framework and accompanying tools (scenarios, causal layered analysis, visioning) by inquiring which methods and tools are appropriate for which national, institutional, organizational and personal contexts. Seven stages are suggested. The first is perceived injustice - "it is not fair." The second is risk mitigation. The third is creating alternative futures. In this phase, the future is used to understand what happens if nothing changes, what happens if there is marginal change, what happens if there is adaptive change, and what happens when a different conceptualization of and access to power emerges. The fourth is directionality, the vision. The fifth is "making the vision real." The sixth is metaphor. In this phase, a narrative is created that helps move groups and individuals from the impossible to the powerful. The final state is personal and focused on using the mantra technique to transform the narrative. The entire process is designed for the context of the user, to enhance our ability to create justice in our perceived worlds, moving from one future to alternative futures, to the realization of preferred futures.
Anticipation to Emancipation: Toward a Stage Theory of the Uses of the Future
This monograph moves toward a stage theory of the uses of the future, deepening the Six Pillars framework and accompanying tools (scenarios, causal layered analysis, visioning) by inquiring which methods and tools are appropriate for which national, institutional, organizational and personal contexts. Seven stages are suggested. The first is perceived injustice - "it is not fair." The second is risk mitigation. The third is creating alternative futures. In this phase, the future is used to understand what happens if nothing changes, what happens if there is marginal change, what happens if there is adaptive change, and what happens when a different conceptualization of and access to power emerges. The fourth is directionality, the vision. The fifth is "making the vision real." The sixth is metaphor. In this phase, a narrative is created that helps move groups and individuals from the impossible to the powerful. The final state is personal and focused on using the mantra technique to transform the narrative. The entire process is designed for the context of the user, to enhance our ability to create justice in our perceived worlds, moving from one future to alternative futures, to the realization of preferred futures.