1. How to Make Rational Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

by CHERYL STRAUSS EINHORN

FOR THE PAST few years, we have battled a virus that scientists still don’t fully understand; watched the stock market sink, then soar, then sink again; and faced a contentious election. The future seems more unpredictable than it has ever been. When we feel such heightened uncertainty, our decision-making processes can break down. We may become paralyzed and afraid to act, or we may act on the basis of bias, emotion, and intuition instead of logic and facts. Being aware of our uncertainty is a necessary precursor to managing it. Effective awareness means pausing, taking a strategic stop, and assessing the situation and the unknowns. We’re now being confronted with data that looks actionable—even though logically we know it’s incomplete and volatile. But even when knowledge is limited, we have tools…

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Harvard Business Review Special Issues (Digital) - 1 Issue, Fall 2023

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