Bond Challenges

▶ THEORETICALLY, JPMORGAN’S DECISION to include Indian government bonds (IGB) in its emerging markets government bond index appears to be a game changer. The move is expected to channel $25-30 billion of foreign funds into India’s government bond market. The increased participation of foreign investors in the Indian bond market could enhance the market’s depth, help reduce the government’s cost of raising funds, incentivise the government to pursue favourable macroeconomic and fiscal management policies—a long-standing market demand—and also improve India’s external balance sheet by way of higher forex reserves, and stabilise the rupee’s valuation against the US dollar. However, in practice, there may be uncertainties along the way that could make achieving these objectives a challenge. India’s inclusion in JPMorgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) will start in June 2024, with…