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Baseball America: Fantasy Baseball January 1st, 2016 Digital Back Issue Cover

Baseball America: Fantasy Baseball 2016 (Digital)

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16 Articles

IT’S A CRAZY TIME IN THE WORLD OF FANTASY BASEBALL. The longtime stability of what we had come to expect out of “playing fantasy” got turned on its head in the last couple of years with the emergence of daily fantasy games. Those games became more prominent last year and their marketing messages became ominpresent, both in baseball and even moreso at the outset of football season last fall. With so much money moving around, perhaps it was inevitable that lawyers and government officials would eventually come sniffing around. And that they did, with the biggest shot across the bow coming when the attorney general in New York ordered daily fantasy services to stop doing business in the state because they were essentially sports betting operations. So just as suddenly…

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

DAILY FANTASY SPORTS WERE ONE OF THE BIG SPORTS STORIES OF 2015. They had been growing in popularity over the past couple of years, and that hit a new level with the major players, Draft Kings and FanDuel, both pouring huge money into sponsorships of all kinds. It started with last baseball season, and seemed to reach a crescendo during football season when daily fantasy advertising was inescapable. With the new level of notoriety, however, came new levels of scrutiny, and suddenly daily fantasy games were getting it from all sides. It didn’t help that the industry had its own version of an insider trading scandal, and that was followed by several state attorneys general taking a sudden interest in daily fantasy games, questioning whether they were a form of…

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

Winning Full-Season Fantasy Leagues Requires Daily Commitment

Many fantasy baseball participants refer to their fantasy drafts or auctions as “Christmas morning for adults.” I really like the sentiment. As a kid was there a more exciting time all year than Christmas morning? Drafts and fantasy sports in general are a place to blow off some steam, interact with friends and enjoy baseball. Fantasy sports are the water cooler of the telecommuting, Internet generation. It’s where we can talk some trash, compete, trade stories and players and get away from the daily grind. But after draft season is over, it’s time to clean up the wrapping paper and prepare for the season. You’ve drafted your team, and now it’s time to manage it. The draft is the most important part of any fantasy season, but even the best…

Winning Full-Season Fantasy Leagues Requires Daily Commitment

TOP 50 PROSPECTS

1 COREY SEAGER, SS/3B, DODGERS Seager pushed his way to the majors despite the presence of Jimmy Rollins and is now firmly in place to start for Los Angeles in 2016. He should put up a solid average and double-digit home runs. 2. TREA TURNER, SS/2B, NATIONALS Turner moved from the Padres to the Nationals last year, and quickly made his way to Washington. With the upheaval for the Nats’ infield, Turner should soon have a starting job and could provide 20-plus steals and average. 3. STEVE MATZ, LHP, METS Matz flashed his talent in a major league stint cut short by injury last year, but it’s clear he’ll be a part of the big league rotation in 2016. Surrounded by hard throwers and a playoff team, Matz is a…

TOP 50 PROSPECTS

Top 50 Prospects: 2016 Draft

The 2016 draft class has a strong mix of college and high school talent, with a promising collection of pitching prospects at the top. New Jersey prep lefthander Jason Groome leads the pack, armed with a mid-90s fastball and swingand-miss curveball that evokes comparisons to Clayton Kershaw. The top college arms are righthander Alec Hansen (Oklahoma) and lefthander A.J. Puk (Florida). Both can reach the upper 90s and have powerful, physical pitchers’ bodies. Each has a chance to move through the minors quickly, and each has the potential to develop into a frontline starter. Position player talent is prevalent at the top, with two high-ceiling college outfielders in the mix to be the first nonpitcher drafted. Corey Ray (Louisville) has explosive bat speed, and Buddy Reed (Florida) has a chance…

Top 50 Prospects: 2016 Draft

POSITION BY POSITION RANKINGS

One of the most interesting aspects of attempting to project players’ statistics is the number of things beyond the numbers that get in the way. It could be a lingering injury, an illness, off-the-field problems, dissension in the clubhouse or BABIP. The point is, as we all know but so frequently forget, past performance does not guarantee future success. Or in baseball terms, it’s not just about the stats. Baseball statistics are not compiled in a vacuum. ERA and RBIs, for example, are dependent on other players’ efforts. So here at Baseball America, we try to tie talent and tools to performance to give you the best educated guess. We have ranked the top players at every position, with scouting reports and a breakdown of their fantasy outlook, as well…

POSITION BY POSITION RANKINGS

BASEBALL AMERICA FANTASY 100 1. Mike Trout, Angels 2. Bryce Harper, Nationals 3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 4. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 5. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 6. Paul Goldschmidt, Dbacks 7. Max Scherzer, Nationals 8. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 9. Jose Altuve, Astros 10. Joey Votto, Reds 11. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 12. Manny Machado, Orioles 13. Kris Bryant, Cubs 14. Carlos Correa, Astros 15. Madison Bumgarner, Giants 16. Buster Posey, Giants 17. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 18. Troy Tulowitzki, Blue Jays 19. David Ortiz, Red Sox 20. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks 21. Jake Arrieta, Cubs 22. Craig Kimbrel, Red Sox 23. Nolan Arenado, Rockies 24. Todd Frazier, Reds 25. Victor Martinez, Tigers 26. Chris Sale, White Sox 27. Jacob deGrom, Mets 28. Jose Abreu, White Sox 29. A.J. Pollock, Diamondbacks 30. Edwin Encarnacion,…

01 BUSTER POSEY GIANTS Age: 28. Experience: 7 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Posey is an all-around superstar, a balanced offensive and defensive player who has posted WARs of 7.7, 4.8, 5.7 and 5.7 in his last four seasons. He’s also won a National League Rookie of the Year Award (2010), MVP (2012) and three World Series rings, and played 150 games last season while catching 106. FANTASY REALITY: Posey’s offensive metrics stayed strong in 2015 and we can expect them to remain about the same in 2016. He may not be a lock as the best fantasy option at catcher, but he’s the safest bet and his career .370 wOBA indicates that he is not likely to endure prolonged slumps at the dish. 02 KYLE SCHWARBER CUBS Age: 23. Experience: 1…

01 PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT DIAMONDBACKS Age: 28. Experience: 5 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Not only is Goldschmidt an elite slugger in his prime and one of the toughest outs in baseball, but he’s also a basestealing threat who swiped a career-high 21 bases last season. If that wasn’t enough, he won the 2015 Rawlings Gold Glove for his stellar defensive work. FANTASY REALITY: Goldschmidt showed no ill effects from the hand injury that derailed his 2014 campaign, and he improved his wOBA in four of his five years in the bigs (.352/.363/.404/.402/.418), the outlier being the injury-shortened season. Expect another monster year from Goldschmidt, whose impressive speed edges him ahead of the other studs as the top fantasy first baseman in the game. 02 ANTHONY RIZZO CUBS Age: 26. Experience: 5 years.…

01 JOSE ALTUVE ASTROS Age: 25. Experience: 5 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Altuve is a fantasy beast at second base, and he added a power stroke to his already impressive offensive resume in 2015. He now has 169 stolen bases in 668 major league games, and he’s an excellent contact hitter who creates runs in droves in a potent lineup. He’s durable, a good fielder and a legitimate star as a leadoff hitter. FANTASY REALITY: The diminutive infielder piles up the hits, and he continues to mature and makes for a safe bet with lots of upside. His .146 ISO, .347 wOBA and 120 RC+ last season prove his outstanding 2014 wasn’t a fluke, and that he’s capable of being the best fantasy second baseman once again in 2016. 02 BRIAN…

01 JOSH DONALDSON BLUE JAYS Age: 30. Experience: 5 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Donaldson is an elite run-producing slugger with prodigious home run power. A solid defensive third baseman with a strong arm, Donaldson was slow in developing as a major league-caliber player, but in the past few seasons has taken a sharp upward curve. He won the Hank Aaron Award as the American League’s best overall hitter in 2015. Donaldson absolutely destroys lefthanded pitching (.428 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .333 ISO v. LHP in 2015) and really enjoys the environment in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. FANTASY REALITY: Since joining the Blue Jays, Donaldson has quickly become the premier fantasy third baseman. His counting stats are off the charts, and he’ll be a highly coveted pick in fantasy drafts in 2016.…

01 CARLOS CORREA ASTROS Age: 21. Experience: 1 year SCOUTING REPORT: The 2015 American League Rookie of the Year, Correa is already a polished shortstop and patient, powerful hitter in the mold of a young Alex Rodriguez, the player with whom he draws the most comparisons. There aren’t any major flaws in his game outside a moderately high (18.1 percent) strikeout rate. FANTASY REALITY: Any shortstop who hits 22 homers and registers a .233 ISO over his first 99 games in the big leagues is obviously special, and because of his torrid start Correa is probably the first shortstop who should come off the board in fantasy drafts. There’s a possibility for some adjustment regression, but if he is really as good as some scouts have projected Correa makes for…

01 MIKE TROUT ANGELS Age: 24. Experience: 5 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Trout is baseball’s best player, with only Bryce Harper truly challenging him. He’s getting bigger, which is cutting down his steals, but he topped 40 homers for the first time in 2015. He’s a standout defender. And he’s not even in his peak physical years yet. FANTASY REALITY: Trout is the best fantasy player available again, and we’re not sure when that’s going to change. He provides power, speed and average. He even managed to cut down on his strikeouts while boosting his average and on-base percentage. 02 BRYCE HARPER NATIONALS Age: 23. Experience: 4 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Finally fully healthy, Harper blossomed into the superstar everyone expected. He was Baseball America’s Major League Player of the Year, blasted…

DESIGNATED HITTERS

01 DAVID ORTIZ RED SOX Age: 40. Experience: 19 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Ortiz is aging like a fine wine, and his 37 home runs last year were his most since his career peak in 2006. And His other numbers are holding steady too; again, not at career peaks but still plenty productive. For the amount of power he provides he doesn’t strike out too much. Durability is always a consideration at age 40, but working exclusively as a DH limits that risk. FANTASY REALITY: Why not go out on top? We don’t know how he’s doing it, but Ortiz keeps doing it year after year and his power shows no signs of tailing off. He has probably been a better bargain in the last couple of years, when people expected…

DESIGNATED HITTERS

STARTING PITCHERS

01 CLAYON KERSHAW DODGERS Age: 27. Experience: 8 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Kershaw fell just short of his fourth Cy Young in five seasons after leading fantasy baseball in strikeouts with 301. His K/9 and BB/9 were better in 2015 than his previous three-season average. He has maintained his plus fastball and plus curveball, and his slider was better in 2015 than in previous seasons. FANTASY REALITY: Kershaw’s dominance had fantasy owners considering him with the first overall selection in 2015 drafts, and he went out and had a career year. You should expect some regression from 2015, but with his improved K/9 and BB/9 he continues to be the best pitcher in fantasy baseball and the consensus No. 1 starter. 02 MAX SCHERZER NATIONALS Age: 31. Experience: 8 years. SCOUTING…

STARTING PITCHERS

RELIEF PITCHERS

01 CRAIG KIMBREL RED SOX Age: 27. Experience: 6 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Kimbrel’s fastball/slider mix is one of the best in any bullpen and his K/9 last season was 13.20, fourth-best among relievers. After a season in San Diego, he was traded to the Red Sox. FANTASY REALITY: Kimbrel has been an elite closer for his entire career and the move to Boston should provide more save opportunities. He strikes out almost as many batters as some of the weaker starting pitchers as well, so he’s a no-brainer as the top reliever on the board. 02 TREVOR ROSENTHAL CARDINALS Age: 25. Experience: 4 years. SCOUTING REPORT: Rosenthal’s velocity makes him virtually unhittable, though it does create some nervous nights because of command issues. His K/9 last season was 10.88 while…

RELIEF PITCHERS

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